Macro HIGH

HY Spread: well above its trailing average

Latest: 2.63 vs 12-period avg of 2.71 (z-score: +3.12).

FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2
Divergence HIGH

Equity: flows diverging from prices

Money is flowing OUT despite rising prices — the rally may lack conviction.

Equity vs SPY
Divergence HIGH

Fixed Income: flows diverging from prices

Money is flowing IN despite falling prices — historically a bullish signal.

Fixed Income vs TLT
Macro MEDIUM

Unemployment Rate: well above its trailing average

Latest: 4.10 vs 12-period avg of 4.32 (z-score: +2.2).

FRED: UNRATE
Flow Signal HIGH

Property: expect inflows next month

Model predicts inflows with 95% confidence based on momentum, macro conditions, and seasonality.

Flow predictor
Generated Sep 4, 2026, 03:58 PM

Key Signals

3 flow-price divergence(s) detected: Equity (bearish, severity 100%), Fixed Income (bullish, severity 100%), Mixed Asset (bearish, severity 25%).

Market Regime

Markets are currently in Risk-On mode (100% confidence, composite score: 0.921). Risk appetite is elevated with favorable conditions across credit, volatility, and equity momentum.

Fund Flows

Positive flow momentum expected for Property (95%), Fixed Income (95%), Mixed Asset (64%).

Macro Backdrop

Economic data is broadly beating expectations (surprise index: 0.95, trend: improving). Notable: Unemployment Rate is beating (z: +2.2); CPI All Items is beating (z: +1.39); VIX is missing (z: -1.25); HY Spread is beating (z: +3.12).

About Fund Flow Analytics

Fund Flow Analytics is a free, Bloomberg-style dashboard that tracks where money is moving across UK funds and global markets. It combines monthly Investment Association fund-flow data, live market and macro indicators, and a market-regime classifier into a single daily brief for investment professionals — no login required.

What is a market regime, and how is it classified?
A market regime describes the prevailing risk environment. This dashboard classifies markets as Risk-On, Risk-Off, Transition, or Crisis using a weighted composite of eight signals — high-yield credit spreads, VIX, the yield curve, the US dollar, M2 money supply, the Fed balance sheet, and cross-asset momentum.
Where does the data come from?
Fund flows are scraped monthly from the Investment Association; market and commodity prices come from Yahoo Finance; macro indicators from the US Federal Reserve (FRED); institutional holdings and insider trades from SEC EDGAR; and factor returns from the Kenneth French Data Library. Everything is sourced from free public APIs.
How often is the data updated?
Most datasets refresh every 12 hours via a scheduled job, and any dataset older than 48 hours is refreshed on demand. Fund-flow figures from the Investment Association are monthly and update when the IA publishes a new release.
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